Investing in
Consumer Brands
Consumer brands are all around you, and
so are the investment opportunities and ideas that come from these
companies. Whether it's Gillette shaving cream or Jello pudding that gets
your gears going, there are three key factors to consider when looking to
invest in a consumer brands company.
By Robert Fredeen
Consumer brands are among the best-known companies on Earth.
For a variety of reasons, the companies that own the brands have convinced
people that their products are better than their competitors', and people
are willing to pay a bit more for these products.
Looking for these
types of companies can be very easy. For instance, look at the shoes on
your feet. Perhaps you are a big Nike (NYSE: NKE) fan,
so you can look at Nike as a possible investment. Other consumer brand
companies require a bit more effort to figure out. If you really love
using Tide to wash your clothes, and you would like to invest in the
manufacturer, you need to find out that Tide is owned by Procter &
Gamble (NYSE:
PG).
Investing in consumer brands is one of the easiest ways to
buy what you know, since most of us eat food, buy soap, and wear shoes
with brand names attached to them. Investigating these companies often
strikes close to home as you learn more about the products you use every
day.
Consumer brands are middlemen There are a
few points to remember about consumer brands. First, these companies are
usually some kind of middlemen. They stand astride their respective
industries, taking raw, semi-finished, or even finished goods from
manufacturers, then distributing those items to retailers or other
companies. While each industry has its own peculiarities, the basic point
is that consumer brands are in the middle of their industries, not at one
end. This fact weighs heavily on how to evaluate these
companies.
Marketing is important Second,
marketing is a crucial factor in the success or failure of a product.
Unfortunately, marketing is notoriously hard to measure, and it seems the
effectiveness of an advertising campaign doesn't show up until the company
has poor sales the following quarter.
Distribution
channels and what they mean Third, because of their position as
middlemen, consumer brands companies must work to create distribution
channels. By distribution channel, we mean the way a company gets its
products out to consumers. Stronger companies have larger, more diverse
distribution channels, which helps them fend off the inevitable problems
that strike industries from time to time.
Let's look at these three
points individually.
It all starts with
marketing Many, if not most, consumer brand companies live and die
by the strength of their brands. This isn't just about how much money they
throw at advertising campaigns. Brand value is built when companies live
up to their promises to customers. One key point here is that companies
need to produce good products that people want to buy. Another is that the
companies need to build awareness for and explain their brand value to
customers in a way that translates into sales and brand
preference.
Effective marketing is all about communication.
Marketing campaigns need to communicate to the target audience how the
brand is better than its competitors. And, like most communication,
marketing needs to start with the basics -- explaining what the product is
and how it's better for consumers before diving into cool, esoteric
ads.
There are many ways to convey a brand's message to consumers,
and several media outlets to use. It's important to judge a marketing
campaign on how well the message fits the medium. For example, ads for
websites often do not work on television. There are two big reasons for
this. First, the brands are too young and don't have the mindshare in the
TV-watching population for the marketing to make much sense. Second, TV
tends to be a passive medium (just think of the negative nicknames
associated with TV), while the Internet is interactive to its very core.
It's possible for companies to bridge these differences, but it is also
complicated.
All of this communication will be for naught, however,
if the company and product fail to live up to their promises. Also, when
problems arise, companies need to handle them resolutely and honestly. The
classic example is Johnson and Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ)
handling of the Tylenol cyanide scare in the 1980s. The company moved
quickly and resolutely to remove the potentially tainted products from
store shelves, and put better safety measures in place. Providing a good
product is an important part of building the brand. Standing by that
product and quickly fixing problems is critical to maintaining the
brand.
The one thing marketing cannot do is confuse consumers. If
the advertising campaigns talk about value, the products shouldn't sport
luxury prices. If the brand is focused on winning athletes, the company
should shy away from non-sports-related marketing. This confusion can
muddle the brand's image and cause people to identify with it less. The
result of fewer people identifying with a brand is usually falling sales
and profits -- not something we like to see in an
investment.
Marketing needs to be a core strength of a consumer
brand company. So, investors need to find companies that both understand
their brands and work hard to support them. The marketing needs to explain
to consumers what the products do, and it needs to be clear on what the
company, brand, and product stand for. Giving consumers something to
identify with is the most important role of marketing.
Deep distribution channels Distribution channels are
critical to consumer brands because few of these companies own significant
retail real estate. They must have deals with retailers. The more
retailers that carry their products, within certain limits, the more
people have the opportunity to buy those products.
Let's explain
one point about distribution, though. Not every retailer is desirable. If
your brand focuses on high-class luxury goods, it's not a good idea to
sell them at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), no
matter what the terms of the deal are. Part of the allure of luxury
brands, in fact, is their relative scarcity. Wal-Mart is not a
luxury-goods retailer, so putting these items up for sale there will be
useless, if not bad for the brand. Instead, companies need to cut deals
with retailers that target a similar market as the company.
Other
than that, distribution is key. Looking at companies like Proctor &
Gamble and Kraft Foods -- owned by Philip Morris (NYSE: MO) --
huge distribution networks are the keys to these companies' success. They
are able get their goods into the largest retailers, making their products
accessible to virtually every consumer in the U.S. and much of the world.
This means that when they have a new product, these companies can easily
and cheaply deliver them to all of their existing accounts.
As much
as I hate to use buzzwords, the benefit of a large distribution channel is
all about leverage. When a company has several brands under its control,
it is in a stronger position to persuade retailers to carry its brands. It
is far cheaper to add a crate of Pampers to the usual weekly Tide delivery
than to send a new truck of diapers. Also, companies can cross-promote
items, as PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) does
with its beverages and Frito-Lay snack products. By linking brands in
different product lines, companies may be able to improve their market
share in each product category.
For most consumer brands, it is
critical that the goods are displayed prominently at retailers. This can
help cut costs, improve overall sales, and increase market
share.
In the middle Being in the middle of
their industry presents consumer brand companies with some great
opportunities as well as challenges. We'll start with the challenges. We
covered the importance of distribution channels above. However, these same
critical relationships can be a source of risk for consumer brand
companies as well.
A prime example is Nike. As the footwear retail
industry expanded in the mid-1990s, Nike was performing very well.
Unfortunately, this expansion turned to over-expansion, and retailers
started to suffer from high inventory levels. With the retailers
suffering, Nike suffered as well. Products weren't moving, so retailers
didn't have the space or the money to buy new Nike shoes, hurting Nike's
sales in 1998 and 1999. It wasn't until 2000 that the industry started to
recover -- and with it, Nike's business.
So, problems at related
players like retailers can reverberate up through the industry, hurting
sales and profits at the consumer brand companies that are in the middle.
Many consumer brand companies find themselves unable to completely control
their destiny because of problems downstream from them. It's easier to pay
attention to this issue in relatively simple industries like footwear.
Other industries may be more difficult.
However, this potential
problem is offset by a benefit that strong consumer brands frequently
enjoy: They can often get customers to pay them faster than they have to
pay their suppliers. One way to check this is to calculate the Foolish
Flow Ratio for a company, which originated in our Rule Maker portfolio.
We define the Flow Ratio as: (Current Assets - Cash)
---------------------------------------
(Current Liabilities - Short-term Debt)
Essentially, we have inventory and accounts receivable on top
and accounts payable on the bottom. Inventory and accounts receivable
represent cash the company doesn't have -- either spending on products in
inventory or sales it has made but not received cash for. Accounts payable
are a source of cash for companies. This account represents the amount the
company owes its suppliers, but it hasn't paid yet and doesn't owe
interest on. We like to see a Flow Ratio of 1.00 or lower, meaning that
accounts payable are roughly equal to inventory and accounts
receivable.
This would mean that the company's suppliers are
financing their sales and inventory. This is the power a strong consumer
brand company can enjoy. While we aren't going to claim that every
consumer company posts great Flow Ratios, it is one hallmark of a great
company.
Conclusion There are a few key issues
to consider when analyzing consumer brands companies. It's important to
identify the key values of the brand, the distribution channels, and how
effectively the company manages working capital, as measured by the
Foolish Flow Ratio. Finding consumer brands companies that excel in all
three of these areas likely means you're looking at a first-rate company
that promises excellent long-term investment potential. |